Experts Warn Venezuela’s Military Is a Hollow Force Amid Rising U.S. Tensions
CARACAS, Venezuela — As tensions escalate between the United States and Nicolás Maduro’s regime, military experts are raising alarms about the true state of Venezuela’s armed forces. Though the Venezuelan military projects an image of strength, analysts reveal it is weakened by years of corruption, political patronage, and neglect, rendering it more fragile than it appears.
Isaias Medina, an international lawyer and former Venezuelan diplomat who has testified against his government at the International Criminal Court, described the regime as a “criminalized state dominated by narcotrafficking networks.” He likened Venezuela to “a fortress built on sand wrapped around a criminal regime,” warning that any U.S. military action would be akin to “evicting a terrorist cartel that settled next door and not invading a country.”
Medina emphasized the complexity of any intervention, citing Venezuela’s dense civilian population, which has suffered under Maduro’s rule. He urged caution, advocating for “overwhelming bias toward restraint and longer operational timelines,” and warned against targeting areas that cannot be struck cleanly without causing collateral damage.
Retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery, senior director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation, highlighted the Venezuelan military’s air and naval capabilities as the most significant threat to potential U.S. operations. These include fighter jets, limited naval vessels, and Russian-made surface-to-air missile systems. However, Montgomery expressed confidence that these could be neutralized swiftly. “Reasonably speaking, in the first day or two of a campaign plan, we can eliminate the air and maritime threat to U.S. forces,” he said.
Montgomery outlined that any U.S. campaign aimed at disrupting Venezuela’s cocaine production would likely begin with simultaneous strikes targeting airfields, aircraft, and air defense systems to prevent retaliation. Despite the military’s apparent size, thousands of politically appointed generals remain disconnected from an estimated 100,000 lower-ranking troops who may abandon their posts under pressure, further weakening the force’s cohesion.
These assessments come amid growing U.S. concerns over Venezuela’s role in narcotrafficking and regional instability. The U.S. Department of State has repeatedly condemned Maduro’s government for corruption and human rights abuses. Meanwhile, the Department of Defense continues to monitor developments closely, preparing for contingencies in the region.
The complexity of Venezuela’s terrain and population density adds to the challenge. Medina warned that any ground operation in a country roughly twice the size of California would be “terrifically challenging,” requiring a nuanced approach that balances military objectives with humanitarian concerns.
Despite Maduro’s frequent displays of military pageantry, including parades showcasing troops and weaponry, experts caution that much of the equipment is outdated or poorly maintained. Rusting hardware and lack of operational readiness undermine the force’s effectiveness.
As diplomatic and strategic pressures mount, the U.S. faces a delicate balancing act. The Central Intelligence Agency’s World Factbook notes Venezuela’s political instability and economic crisis as ongoing challenges, underscoring the risks of any military engagement.
With the Maduro regime entrenched yet vulnerable, and the Venezuelan people caught in the crossfire, experts call for careful deliberation. The situation remains fluid, with the potential for significant regional repercussions depending on how Washington chooses to proceed.
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