China’s Expanding Missile Arsenal Threatens U.S. Pacific Bases Amid Growing Strategic Rivalry
HONOLULU, Hawaii — China’s rapid expansion of its missile forces poses a significant threat to every major U.S. military installation in the Pacific, raising concerns about America’s ability to respond effectively in a potential conflict over Taiwan. Over decades, Beijing has developed a vast inventory of short-, medium-, and long-range missiles designed to deter or delay U.S. intervention, experts say, fundamentally altering the strategic landscape in the region.
According to Seth Jones, a defense analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force has constructed an extensive network of hardened underground facilities and mobile launchers capable of striking targets across the first and second island chains. This missile force is intended to keep U.S. aircraft and naval forces at bay, effectively contesting American military access to critical bases and ports.
“They didn’t think that they could gain air superiority in a straight-up air-to-air fight,” said Eric Heginbotham, a research scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “So you need another way to get missiles out — and that another way is by building a lot of ground launchers.” This approach reflects China’s strategic calculation to leverage land-based firepower as a counterbalance to U.S. air and naval dominance.
U.S. officials acknowledge that the missile threat complicates the defense posture across the Western Pacific. Every major airfield, port, and military installation from Guam to Okinawa now falls within range of Chinese missiles, shrinking the window for a coordinated American response. The challenge lies not only in the sheer volume of missiles but also in China’s adoption of rapid shoot-and-scoot tactics, which aim to overwhelm missile defenses and complicate targeting efforts.
Despite China’s numerical advantage, the United States retains critical technological edges. American missile systems, including Tomahawk cruise missiles and the SM-6, are integrated into a sophisticated global surveillance and targeting network. This network relies on satellites, undersea sensors, stealth drones, and decades of combat experience to enhance accuracy and survivability, capabilities that the People’s Liberation Army has yet to fully replicate.
“The Chinese have not fought a war since the 1970s,” Jones noted, underscoring concerns about Beijing’s operational readiness and joint force coordination. In contrast, U.S. forces benefit from extensive combat experience and advanced command and control systems, which remain vital in a conflict scenario.
The intensifying missile competition underscores the broader strategic rivalry between the two powers, particularly as tensions over Taiwan continue to escalate. The U.S. Department of Defense has emphasized the importance of maintaining access to forward bases and developing long-range fires to counter China’s missile threat. The Defense Department is accelerating efforts to enhance missile defenses and improve the resilience of critical infrastructure across the Indo-Pacific.
Meanwhile, the U.S. State Department continues to advocate for diplomatic engagement and regional security partnerships aimed at deterring aggression and preserving stability. However, analysts warn that the missile buildup may force a rethinking of traditional military strategies, placing greater emphasis on survivability and rapid response.
As the window to respond narrows, the contest between China’s missile force and U.S. military capabilities is shaping into a defining feature of 21st-century great power competition. The trajectory of this arms race will have profound implications not only for the balance of power in the Pacific but also for global security dynamics in the years ahead.
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