Experts Warn Venezuela’s Future Uncertain as U.S. Pressure Mounts on Maduro Regime
CARACAS, Venezuela — As the Trump administration intensifies its National Security Strategy targeting Venezuela, experts warn that the country’s political crisis could spiral into an even graver security dilemma. Analysts told Fox News Digital that the fate of Venezuela hinges on whether Washington pushes Nicolás Maduro toward negotiation or escalates pressure, potentially triggering a power vacuum filled by violent criminal syndicates and armed militias.
Venezuela today resembles less a centralized dictatorship and more a mosaic of territories controlled by drug cartels, Colombian insurgents, and regime-aligned militias, according to Roxanna Vigil, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and former U.S. national security official focused on Latin America. “If the U.S. pressure campaign escalates into conflict, there will be very little control over what comes next,” Vigil said. She warned that an uncontrolled collapse could unleash a successor even worse than Maduro himself.
Jason Marczak, vice president at the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, emphasized that the challenge extends beyond Maduro to the entrenched ecosystem of non-state armed groups that have embedded themselves across Venezuela for decades. “It’s hard to imagine things getting any worse than under Nicolás Maduro, but what’s critical is ensuring those around him—who are often human rights violators and corrupt enforcers—do not simply assume power,” Marczak said.
The Trump administration’s strategy, as outlined in the 2025 National Security Strategy, has ratcheted up sanctions and diplomatic pressure on the Maduro regime. However, experts caution that without a clear pathway to negotiation, the risk of violent fragmentation grows. Venezuela’s territory is increasingly controlled by a patchwork of criminal actors, including drug cartels and guerrilla factions, complicating any transition.
Human rights organizations have documented abuses by Maduro’s loyalists, who have maintained power through ruthless tactics. If opposition leaders such as María Corina Machado or Juan Guaidó fail to secure a democratic transition, analysts warn that these ruthless loyalists and corrupt enforcers could seize power, perpetuating Venezuela’s cycle of repression and instability.
U.S. policymakers face a precarious balancing act. The U.S. Department of State has repeatedly condemned Maduro’s government for human rights violations and corruption, while signaling support for democratic forces. Yet the prospect of a violent power vacuum raises concerns about the proliferation of armed groups that could destabilize the region further.
As the crisis deepens, the international community watches closely. The trajectory of Venezuela’s future may well depend on whether the United States can leverage its influence to foster dialogue and avoid a descent into chaos marked by drug trafficking, guerrilla warfare, and fractured governance.
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