With New START Treaty Expired, U.S. and Russia Face Unconstrained Nuclear Arsenals
WASHINGTON, D.C. — For the first time in decades, the world’s two largest nuclear powers, the United States and Russia, are no longer bound by any formal treaty limiting their nuclear arsenals. The expiration of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) on February 7, 2026, has removed longstanding caps on the number of deployed nuclear weapons and ended mandated notifications of nuclear movements between the two nations.
New START, which had been the last remaining nuclear arms control agreement between Washington and Moscow, played a pivotal role in maintaining strategic stability since its entry into force in 2011. Its expiration marks a significant shift in global nuclear dynamics, with the potential to accelerate an arms race reminiscent of Cold War tensions.
According to a recent analysis, there are currently more than 12,200 nuclear weapons worldwide, distributed among nine nuclear-armed states. The United States and Russia collectively account for approximately 10,636 of these warheads, representing the overwhelming majority of the global nuclear stockpile. With no treaty constraints, both countries can now deploy and move nuclear weapons without prior notification, raising concerns about transparency and the risk of miscalculations.
The lapse of New START also means the cessation of onsite inspections and data exchanges that helped verify compliance and build mutual trust. Experts warn that the absence of these verification mechanisms could undermine efforts to prevent nuclear proliferation and reduce the risk of accidental conflict.
While other nuclear-armed countries such as China, India, Pakistan, the United Kingdom, France, Israel, and North Korea maintain smaller arsenals, the U.S.-Russia dynamic remains central to global nuclear stability. The U.S. Department of State has emphasized the importance of arms control agreements in promoting international security, but diplomatic efforts to renew or replace New START have yet to yield results.
In response to the treaty’s expiration, the Department of Defense has reiterated its commitment to maintaining a credible nuclear deterrent while pursuing strategic stability. Meanwhile, the Arms Control Association and other watchdog groups have called for renewed negotiations to prevent an unchecked nuclear buildup.
The expiration also impacts global nonproliferation frameworks overseen by the United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs, which has long advocated for reductions in nuclear arsenals and the prevention of nuclear conflict.
As the world enters this uncharted era without formal limits on the nuclear capabilities of its two largest powers, analysts caution that the risks of escalation and instability could increase. The international community now faces the challenge of reestablishing dialogue and agreements that can restore predictability and reduce the threat posed by the vast nuclear stockpiles still maintained by Washington and Moscow.
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