Venezuela Faces Rising Threats from Armed Groups Following Maduro’s Arrest
CARACAS, Venezuela — The arrest of former President Nicolás Maduro by U.S. authorities has plunged Venezuela into a precarious state, as armed militias, guerrilla factions, and criminal cartels exploit the ensuing power vacuum to tighten their grip on the country. Analysts warn that these groups, including the notorious Tren de Aragua cartel and the ELN guerrillas, now threaten to undermine any progress toward political stability amid the ongoing transition.
Since Maduro’s removal, interim President Delcy Rodríguez has assumed control with backing from the Trump administration, but her authority remains tenuous. Military analysts emphasize that Venezuela is saturated with heavily armed groups capable of sabotaging the fragile transition. Andrei Serbin Pont, head of the Buenos Aires-based think tank Cries, told The Financial Times that “all of the armed groups have the power to sabotage any type of transition just by the conditions of instability that they can create.”
Government-aligned militias known as “colectivos” have been deployed across Caracas and other urban centers to enforce order and suppress dissent, but their presence has only heightened tensions. Armed motorcyclists and masked enforcers have established checkpoints in the capital, searching civilians’ phones and vehicles for signs of opposition to the U.S. raid. This environment of instability, Serbin Pont added, “plays into the hands of armed actors.”
Outside the capital, the ELN guerrillas have expanded control over border areas, while the Tren de Aragua cartel has broadened its operations amid the political uncertainty. The ELN, a Colombian guerrilla group, has long been involved in illicit activities including drug trafficking and extortion, and their growing influence in Venezuela raises concerns about regional security. Meanwhile, Tren de Aragua is known for some of the most brutal criminal acts in the country, further destabilizing already fragile communities.
Interim President Rodríguez faces the delicate challenge of maintaining the support of two powerful regime hardliners: Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello and Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino. Venezuelan military strategist José García told Reuters that Cabello is “the most ideological, violent and unpredictable element of the Venezuelan regime.” Phil Gunson, an analyst with the International Crisis Group, noted that Rodríguez “has to walk a tightrope” to secure approval from the armed factions that ultimately control the country’s fate.
The U.S. Department of State has long identified Maduro as a key figure in the Cartel de los Soles, a criminal network deeply embedded in Venezuela’s military and government institutions. His arrest sends a clear message to drug cartels, allied regimes, and U.S. rivals, according to retired military officials. However, the removal of Maduro has not diminished the entrenched power of these groups; instead, it has created a vacuum that they are eager to fill.
Local residents express deep uncertainty about the future. Oswaldo, a 69-year-old shop owner in Caracas, told The Telegraph, “The future is uncertain, the colectivos have weapons, the Colombian guerrilla is already here in Venezuela, so we don’t know what’s going to happen, time will tell.”
As the interim government attempts to assert control, the presence of heavily armed groups across Venezuela’s territory complicates efforts to restore order and rebuild democratic institutions. The U.S. Senate recently advanced a resolution to limit military action in Venezuela, reflecting concerns about escalating violence and instability in the region. Meanwhile, international observers continue to monitor the situation closely, recognizing that sustained peace will require addressing the influence of these armed actors.
The unfolding crisis in Venezuela underscores the challenges faced by nations emerging from authoritarian rule, especially when criminal networks and guerrilla forces have entrenched themselves deeply within the state’s fabric. The coming months will be critical in determining whether Venezuela can navigate this perilous transition or descend further into chaos.
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